A brand new research exhibits Chicago’s crime decline is a part of a nationwide development that’s driving murders, carjackings and sexual assaults beneath pre-pandemic ranges.
The report from the Council on Felony Justice exhibits nationally, violent crime charges for the primary half of 2025 have been decrease than within the first half of 2019. In Chicago the drop in homicides from 2019 to 2025 was considerably bigger than the nationwide common.
The nationwide research is the most recent affirmation of Chicago’s receding violence, which spiked in 2020 and 2021 and has fallen within the years since.
Ernesto Lopez, a senior analysis specialist on the Council on Felony Justice, mentioned Chicago’s murder charge elevated by about 60% from 2019 to 2021, a leap nearly double the nationwide common. Now, Chicago is “about 25% beneath the place they have been within the first half of 2019.”
“That’s fairly a giant shift,” Lopez mentioned. “Numerous that shift seems to be newer, with the primary half of this 12 months being about 33% decrease than the primary half of 2024.”
Mayor Brandon Johnson has touted the numbers as proof that the town is “doing the issues that work” relating to shootings and murders. Some have credited investments in neighborhood anti-violence efforts, however Lopez mentioned there may be not sufficient proof to help that violence intervention is driving this decline, nationally or in Chicago.
“For any metropolis, once we analyze these metropolis traits, we strive to not ascribe a selected trigger to both the rise or to the lower, with out having higher information. And so whereas it’s encouraging that cities are implementing quite a lot of programming, we wouldn’t have a lot confidence to say that they’re efficient with out clear proof,” Lopez mentioned.
Lopez mentioned their research didn’t take a look at modifications inside native road drug markets, which he thinks may have performed a job within the improve in homicides Chicago noticed in 2020 and 2021.
The research checked out reported crimes in 42 American cities. In line with information from the Council on Felony Justice, Chicago had fewer reported incidents of housebreaking, larceny, murder, theft, home violence, drug offenses, carjackings and sexual assault within the first six months of 2025 in contrast the primary half of 2019.
Automotive thefts and shoplifting are nonetheless increased than pre-pandemic ranges however trending downwards.
Lopez mentioned Chicago has seen in all probability a few of the largest will increase in shoplifting among the many cities they monitor. However since shoplifting and larceny aren’t reliably reported to regulation enforcement, he mentioned, “it’s arduous to say if a few of these traits are a results of elevated reporting or precise elevated offenses.”
Lopez mentioned “nearly each massive metropolis in america” noticed large will increase in motorcar thefts.
“Chicago is not any exception, growing by about 230% from 2019 to 2023,” Lopez mentioned. “Chicago has seen some [recent] declines in motorcar theft…Nevertheless, it nonetheless stays about 80% increased than the primary half of 2025.”
